Ukraine’s Rare Earth Fallacy – Fat Tail Daily | Term Deposits

Given the unfolding drama between the US and Ukraine, I believed I’d deal with one of the important thing points on this high-stakes wrangling: Uncommon Earth metals, also referred to as REEs.

As you might need heard, the Trump Administration needs entry to Ukraine’s supposedly ‘vast’ vital mineral reserves, together with REEs.

This text from ABC Information provides you the nuts and bolts of what’s occurring:

‘Trump wants half of Ukraine’s uncommon earth minerals — so what are they, and why does he need them?’

You may learn the complete piece right here.

In line with the article, UN knowledge reveals that 5 per cent of the world’s international reserves of vital minerals are in Ukraine.

However one thing doesn’t add up right here…does Ukraine truly maintain these alleged reserves?

Mining Memo’s Take

I’ve given REEs a lot of airtime over the previous couple of years.

As you may know, China dominates international REE provide, which might threaten US tech and defence manufacturing if these provide chains are cut.

That’s why the US is eager to seek out options.

However from what I can inform, the media is peddling a false narrative on Ukraine’s supposedly huge provide of vital minerals, together with REEs.

I lately appeared up a report by the US Geological Survey (USGS) on Ukraine’s mining sector. Importantly, it was printed BEFORE the battle kicked off in 2022.

The USGS examine confirms that Ukraine was the third-largest producer of rutile and the world’s sixth-largest producer of ilmenite, iron ore, and graphite. Different important commodities included kaolin, manganese, and magnesium.

However there’s no point out of Uncommon Earths within the USGS report!

But, regardless of the dearth of proof from the world’s authority on international mineral reserves, the media is unanimously spruiking Ukraine’s REE potential.

Test this out from the Washington Publish:

In line with this news outlet, Ukraine’s vital steel reserves are price a staggering $26 trillion…which equates to the whole GDP of the US economic system!

I’m calling BS on this entire ridiculous narrative.

There’s an agenda at play right here, and I’ll depart that to the conspiracy theorist to determine.

In phrases of exhausting details and science, Ukraine doesn’t have something close to the huge reserves which are being publicised by the media.

Nor does it have significant REE reserves.

So, the place’s this data coming from?

In line with the Washinton Publish, the ‘data’ was pulled from an organisation referred to as the ‘Centre for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD).’

That is a public coverage ‘think tank’ organisation registered in Belgrade and New York.

Who is aware of what this organisation’s goal or motive is?

However I doubt they’ve any understanding of drilling, geology or evaluating mineral reserves.

But, it appears that is one of the first sources backing Ukraine’s claims of huge vital steel reserves, together with REEs.

Once more, this doesn’t odor proper.

Australia’s useful resource minister, Madaline King, was spot on final week telling the US President he ought to look to Australia to secure its REE provide chain.

Australia has firms like Lynas [ASX:LYC], which already extracts and processes Uncommon Earth metals — one of the one suppliers exterior China.

Plus, Australia has a bunch of builders within the pipeline closing in on manufacturing within the subsequent 5 years.

Mixed, they may rapidly meet the demand for Western suppliers IF the Chinese language cut provide.

However suppose the suppose tank I discussed earlier was proper, and Ukraine DOES maintain huge reserves of REEs regardless of a whole lack of proof.

Effectively, it’ll be a long time earlier than these reserves might be mined.

As soon as the battle ends, these hypothetical deposits will take years to drill out, full metallurgical check work and construct advanced processing plants.

By then, operators in Australia, Brazil, and Canada will already be in full manufacturing.

The entire problem is a farce, and as soon as again, the media is peddling a false narrative.

If you’d like entry to actual and actionable investment insights, why not be part of me at Diggers & Drillers right here.

Till subsequent time.

Regards,

James Cooper,
Editor, Mining: Section One and Diggers and Drillers

All advice is common advice and has not taken into consideration your personal circumstances.

Please search impartial financial advice relating to your own state of affairs, or if unsure concerning the suitability of an investment.

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