Gold price reaches a new file and Macquarie suggestions | Australian Markets
An oz of gold is fetching a new file price and flirting with the $US3000 barrier after Donald Trump’s chaotic tariff discuss and unpredictable inflation brightened the dear metallic’s secure haven appeal.
Gold hit $US2988 ($4750) per ounce in New York early this morning, having gained more than 12 per cent thus far this 12 months.
The latest rise was buoyed by continued uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s trade tariff insurance policies and the release of recent inflation information in the USA.
The North American nation’s inflation for February got here in at 2.8 per cent, beneath economists’ expectations, stoking hopes of an rate of interest cut that may be a tailwind for gold’s worth.
The price of bullion is set to rise even additional, based on the latest prediction from Macquarie. The millionaire manufacturing facility believes gold might attain $US3500/oz during the September quarter. It has a base case of $US3150/oz pencilled in for the penultimate quarter of 2025.
“It is possible that the imposition of reciprocal tariffs after April 1 will be below market expectations and provide some sentiment relief, but our base case is for weaker global goods demand and industrial production growth to hurt first use commodities consumption,” Macquarie acknowledged on Friday.
“We therefore expect most commodity prices to move lower into the second half, with the majority of physical balances registering global surpluses.
“Gold, however, is a notable exception.”
Macquarie stated the US Authorities’s ballooning debt is one other tailwind for gold this 12 months.
“The US budget process should bring the deficit into focus and boost demand for gold, providing a tailwind to precious metals as a whole.”
The US finances deficit for the primary 5 months of the 2025 financial 12 months hit a file $US1.15 trillion, together with a $US307b February deficit for President Trump’s first full month in workplace — an increase of 4 per cent in comparison with February final 12 months.
Final month, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold prediction to $US3100/oz, whereas Citi stated earlier in February that it anticipated costs to hit $US3000/oz within three months.
The gold price bonanza elevated ASX-listed gold miners on Friday.
On the close of trade, Ramelius Assets’ stock was up 2.3 per cent, Northern Star Assets 2.8 per cent, Vault Minerals 4.6 per cent, Evolution Mining 4.6 per cent, Regis Assets 5.6 per cent, and Westgold Assets 7.2 per cent.
RBC Capital Markets on Thursday boosted its share price targets on gold miners by an average of 8 per cent on the back of the booming demand for bullion.
“Companies with less gold (price) hedging should benefit most from gold price increases, in our view,” RBC instructed purchasers.
“These include Westgold, Regis, De Grey Mining, Gold Road Resources and Evolution Mining.
“Relatively more hedged gold miners include Vault, Bellevue Gold and Northern Star.”
Whereas the good money is getting behind gold’s bull run extending all through 2025, there may be much less optimism for 2026 and past.
“Prices are expected to remain elevated by historic standards, but struggle to rally from forecast all-time highs in 2025,” Macquarie acknowledged.
The investment bank reckons gold will average $US2675/oz over 2026 and proceed to say no to an average of $US2400/oz during 2028.
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