Money, Gold, and Time – Fat Tail Daily | Australian Markets

‘By the sweat of your face you shall eat bread, till you return to the ground, for out of it you were taken; for you are dust, and to dust you shall return.’

Genesis, 3:19

The doctrine in philosophy is named ‘eternal return.’ The whole lot goes back whence it comes. For us, it’s our new Regulation of Conservation of Worth. It’s why — regardless of the proof of our own eyes — we put the growth in worth of your entire US stock market for the final 100 years…at zero.

Expensive reader, we’re ploughing the almost-virgin earth…no less than it’s virgin enough. Moreover, a nicely introduced up younger man is aware of higher than to ask.

However allow us to start by trying on the news:

The dots don’t join. Mr. Trump and Mr. Musk…are they actually on the identical workforce? An actual WTF second got here on Tuesday. The Hill:

‘Musk on Ron Paul as Fed chair: ‘Great idea’

‘Elon Musk in a post on his social platform X appeared to back conservative commentator Charlie Kirk’s suggestion that former Rep. Ron Paul (Texas) exchange Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve.

‘In a reply to Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) on X, Musk wrote “that would be amazing” when Lee said he would like to see Paul as chair. Lee replied: “Ron Paul for Fed Chair!”’

Makes no sense. Trump is a large spender… large borrower… large speculator… and one of the most important beneficiaries of the Fed’s insurance policies over the past 30 years. He’s a ‘low interest’ man. His real estate empire was constructed on low rates of interest. Ron Paul — a ‘hard money’ man — is the final individual he would need on the head of the Fed.

What’s occurring? Who’s in charge?

Is Mr. Trump simply distracting the world with outrageous proposals whereas Elon Musk and his musketeers take a chainsaw to the federal authorities? The Scotsman:

‘How Donald Trump is making it clear the world faces four years of “constant chaos”

‘After just three weeks in office, Donald Trump has spent much of the time almost casually throwing the world into turmoil

‘“This is the next four years. Shifting goalposts and constant chaos, putting our economy at risk,” wrote centre-right Canadian politician Doug Ford, after Donald Trump mentioned he would impose 25 per cent tariffs on “any steel coming into the United States” while travelling to watch the American football Super Bowl.

‘Meanwhile, the people of Gaza learned, via a Fox News interview, that they “wouldn’t” have a proper to return to their properties beneath Trump’s plan to “buy and own” the territory, take away its whole population and rehouse them “a little bit away from where they are”. It’s not fairly clear who will probably be dwelling in Trump’s “Riviera of the Middle East”, however it gained’t be them.’

Or is Musk the actual Bozo… main his youth brigades just like the Crimson Guards during the Cultural Revolution in China, inflicting bedlam all over the place they go… whereas that wily outdated Trumpster consolidates his own energy? The Each day Beast:

‘Edward Coristine, 19, [known as ‘Big Balls’ on the web] is now works as a “senior adviser” within the State Division’s Bureau of Diplomatic Expertise, The Washington Publish reported. Musk and others in MAGA have defended the youth of the DOGE workforce, claiming the whiz children’ ages shouldn’t disqualify them from doing good work.’

MuskWatch.com provides element:

‘In early 2021, Corisitine, then 16, activated the tesla.sexy website. An analysis of URL traffic to tesla.sexy between April 2021 and September 2021 shows that numerous noxious URLs redirected to Coristine’s web site, together with, “children-sex.party,” “child-porn.store,” “kkk-is-cool.club,” “nigga.rentals,” “nigga-sex.download,” “owns-a-slave.shop,” “raping-women.club,” “ketamine-rape.date,” “rape.business,” and “rapes-wo.men.” Web archives of the URLs show they redirected visitors to tesla.horny however any content material they might have linked to has disappeared.’

In the meantime, in all of the disorienting swirl of mud…someplace betwixt Heaven and Hell… gold shines more brightly than ever. It closed yesterday at $2,914 an ounce.

Which brings us back to values. Gold is inert…as brain-dead as a Congressman. How might or not it’s ‘worth’ more? Or, is it simply goin’ ‘roun’ de monitor…in an everlasting return?

In 1925, the average home bought for $6,000. Right now, it’s $510,000. Whoa…that’s an 85-times increase. However in 1925, you would buy an average home for 300 ounces of gold. Right now, it’ll take solely 175 ounces. In gold phrases, the price of a home has fallen 41%.

Shares, in the meantime, started the yr at 120 on the Dow. Right now, they’re over 44,000. That’s a 366-times increase…in {dollars}. However in gold, the stock market was value six ounces of gold in 1925. Now, it’s value 16.

Let’s have a look at automobiles. Ford launched its Mannequin TT truck in 1925 at $505. Right now, the workhorse Ford F-150 is priced round $42,000 – an 83-times increase. However in gold phrases, the price fell from 25 ounces to simply 14.

Sticking with gold, costs for ‘things’ have usually gone down. However not costs for shares, that are up about two and a half occasions.

On the proof, you have been higher off in gold than {dollars}…and best served in shares.

However wait…a more critical kvetch:

‘You can’t examine a car from 1925 to at least one from 2025’, comes the objection from George Gilder and the ‘time prices’ set.

‘Of course, cars are more expensive’, they are saying. ‘You get a lot more for your money today than you did back then.’

Hmmm…

Tomorrow, we’ll have a look at why that objection is defective… and how to ‘connect the dots’ on so many conflicting numbers. Some numbers are more actual than others.

Keep tuned…

Regards,

Invoice Bonner,
For Fats Tail Each day