Part I: Special Copper Edition | Australian Markets

Copper is at an important juncture, but few are paying consideration.

Most dismiss copper’s robust run in 2025 as merely the ‘tariff effect’ destined to ‘unwind soon.’ And develop into one other ‘false break-out.’

Now, in case you’re a long-term reader, you’ll know I’ve been bullish on the copper market for a long time. My evaluation of copper will not be fleeting.

So, how ought to we digest copper’s bullish set-up proper now?

First, it’s important to recognise the main divergence achieved by copper this yr.

As you in all probability know, the market leaders, Mag 7 tech stocks, have tumbled in March.

Meanwhile, the stoic US S&P500 index started to look wobbly for the primary time in years.

The ASX200 formally entered correction territory in Australia earlier within the month after pulling back round 10% from its highs.

Some commentators boldly claimed that the March sell-off was set to set off a main stock market crash—on a scale not seen for the reason that 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

But as I instructed my paid readership group on the peak of the ‘March panic’, this wasn’t the time to promote, particularly not useful resource stocks.

Earlier this month, I issued a buy alert for my premium members at Mining Phase One, leveraging our publicity into two copper juniors.

I did the identical for my readers at Diggers & Drillers, doubling down on two copper producers.

So, why did we use the market concern in March to our benefit?

Well, as I detailed to my paid readership group all through the market sell-off, Dr Copper, the Professor of Economics—a bellwether for world growth… was instructing traders a helpful lesson.

This was NOT the time to panic promote.

If world growth was set to break down as many feared, then why was the world’s most important ‘growth commodity’ surging in 2025?

Yes, tariffs and file volumes of copper imports into the US are serving to drive costs greater.

That means there may be potential for a pullback as this short-term tailwind begins to unwind.

But in my thoughts, that could possibly be an important shopping for alternative.

It’s important to grasp that copper costs had been rising weeks earlier than the looming tariff impact drove copper imports into the US.

That suggests one thing else is probably occurring within the copper market. Later within the week, we’ll unpack some of these causes.

As I instructed my paid readership group earlier within the month, I’ve been watching the copper market for a long time, and I’ve by no means seen a divergence like this.

Dr Copper’s outperformance (purple) in opposition to main market indices this yr is vastly telling. But, again, few are paying consideration:

But right here’s one other fascinating side of copper’s bullish outperformance in 2025… The metallic is now staging a potential break into new all-time highs:

Will Momentum Continue AFTER the Tariff Deadline?

It’s important to notice that copper made a main milestone final week, recording its highest price ever on the benchmark COMEX exchange.

Importantly, although, this doesn’t verify copper’s technical break-out.

You see, copper has examined its all-time high from 2011 a number of instances in recent times—in 2021, 2022, and 2024.

Each time, it didn’t gain momentum above the 2011 high.

This stays a important degree, a price ceiling that’s reversed prior momentum within the copper market a number of instances.

But as copper again tries to make its ‘big move’ above the 2011 high, the timing is extremely fascinating…

Some readers would possibly recall that copper made a multi-year breakout exactly 20 years in the past, catapulting via its Eighties and mid-Nineties resistance ranges.

That break started in June 2005, proven because the inexperienced circle above.

And from there, copper surged a historic 140% in as little as 18 months!

The timing of at present’s price motion exhibits some similarities to this milestone in 2005.

Don’t get me unsuitable, copper’s ‘break-out’ is actually not assured from right here… however there are causes separating at present’s price motion from the earlier ‘false breaks’ that occurred in 2021, 2022, and 2024.

For one factor, the market is scarcely paying consideration.

That starkly contrasts with 2022 and 2024, when headlines went hyperbolic as copper approached its 2011 high and briefly surpassed it.

But one other key issue is copper’s robust divergence from the remaining of the market this yr.

As I confirmed you, copper futures on the COMEX are up virtually 30% year-to-date, whereas most main market indices sit within the pink.

Today’s setup is way more interesting than one, two, or three years in the past when headlines speculated on copper’s imminent surge.

Looking Back on 2005

But maybe probably the most important takeaway if we replicate on 2005 and the potential set-up at present, is the influence on junior mining stocks.

Copper’s historic breakout in 2005 sparked broad hypothesis within the useful resource market. The inexperienced mild, if you’ll.

Like at present’s market, junior mining stocks had been caught in a extended bear market regardless of elevated commodity costs.

But that modified quickly over 2005 and 2006 on the back of copper’s historic rise.

So, are we nearing comparable situations twenty years on?

It’s actually value investigating.

On Wednesday, I’ll unpack this setup additional and look at some of the much less seen components driving the copper price greater in 2025.

Regards,

James Cooper,
Editor, Mining: Phase One and Diggers and Drillers

P.S. If you’re seeking to gain publicity to a potential ‘2005-like event’, be sure to take a look at my devoted advisory service that holds a number of BUY suggestions on copper performs listed on the ASX and abroad.