The Real Heroes – Fat Tail Daily | Australian Markets

We marvel how many federal workers complied with the DOGE demand?

Midnight final evening was the deadline. CBS Information:

‘DOGE’s Elon Musk says federal workers should doc their work or resign; some companies push back

‘Federal workers received an email on Saturday instructing them to document five things they accomplished in the past week, and Elon Musk said those who don’t reply would risk dropping their jobs.

‘The email from the Office of Personnel Management, or OPM, had the subject line, “What did you do last week?” It instructed recipients to reply with five examples of what they got done last week, excluding any classified information, and asked workers to include their supervisor in their response.’

They both introduced some proof to show that they have been gainfully employed… or else…the President defined:

‘If you don’t reply, like, you’re kind of semi-fired otherwise you’re fired, as a result of a lot of people aren’t answering as a result of they don’t even exist.’

The DOGE assault troops consider they’ll ferret out ‘waste’ and ‘corruption’ and save trillions of {dollars}. However they might be firing the improper people.

The issue with authorities spending shouldn’t be the shape; it’s the substance. It’s not that the money is spent inefficiently; it’s that it’s spent in any respect. And for a lot of applications, the phantom worker, who doesn’t do something, is the best of the lot. He does no hurt…by no means complains and by no means wants an costly triple by-pass.

Think about the emails DOGE may need gotten from the feds who have been imposing, say, Prohibition.

‘I put in a very productive week’, one may need replied. ‘I destroyed three stills, arrested 49 moonshiners, and broke 1,450 bottles of whiskey.’

Or…

‘I went to a speakeasy to study the illegal distribution of alcohol. I had a drink, just to verify that they were really serving demon rum. Then, I went home.’

Who shoulda been fired?

Think about that they put the DOGE take a look at to Iraq warfighters…or to the grunts within the struggle towards medication…or anti-poverty bureaucrats or DEI honchos?

The malingerers have been the true heroes…they have been those who did the least injury. The very last thing we might need is a group of earnest federales diligently and energetically pursuing their malignant insurance policies.

And the best strategy to deal with them is to cut their budgets and remove their applications. Something much less than that’s mere window-dressing.

So back to our line of thought from final week. We’ll come proper to the purpose, earlier than we overlook it:

Wages, GDP, gross sales and income ought to by no means get too far out of line — one with one other. There may be no purpose for shares to spin out of orbit both. Chickens can’t be separated from eggs and companies can’t be de-connected from the worth of the output they produce. In the event that they get too dear, they are often anticipated to fall. In the event that they get too low-cost, the best wager is that they may rise.

And general…in comparison with the worth of the ‘stuff’ in our lives…shares shouldn’t increase by a single penny…not even in 100 years. (Extra on this counter-intuitive assertion tomorrow.)

How might that be?

Shares rose 366 instances since 1925. However towards what? In fact, the reply is towards the greenback. And therein hangs a story. It’s a story with a twist. And a spin. The humorous money distorted the entire system…as we’ll see. Not simply costs, however gross sales, income, and GDP too.

In greenback phrases, the S&P 500 gained 2.7% in January after a 23% enhance in 2024. The financial system wherein these outstanding features have been recorded, nonetheless, solely grew 2.8% for all of 2024.

Shouldna… oughtna… performed that.

Similar as eggs. Why would the chickens be a lot more priceless? As we’ll see, they don’t seem to be actually more ‘valuable’ in any respect. They’ve simply been bid up within the speculative frenzy of what Tom calls the ‘greatest financial experiment in history’.

That experiment will sooner or later be proven to be a failure. Worldwide, there could also be $100–150 trillion price of barren chickens…asset values with no corresponding actual output. And as this turns into more apparent, over the following 10… 20…or 100 years, the true return on US investment property could also be unfavourable.

Keep tuned.

Regards,

Invoice Bonner,
For Fats Tail Each day

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